Forecast Discussion

March 12, 2024, Forecast Discussion for March 14, 2024:

A strong frontal boundary with associated dryline will march into far Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas Thursday March 14, 2024. Temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s across the region. CAPE is expected to be near or over 2000 joules per kilogram. CCN is expected to be moderate owing to evaporation of water molecules producing the potential for hail and wind shear. Severe storms are expected to develop and move across the region producing damaging winds of 60 to 83 miles per hour, hail from 1 inch to 2.14 inches in diameter and EF-0 to EF-2 tornadoes will be possible. Currently, the best chance of a tornado would be from Eastern Le Flore County Oklahoma across Northern Scott County Arkansas, and into southern and Eastern Sebastian County Arkansas. There has been some signature of tornado potential in the last update near Fort Smith Arkansas but want to wait until tomorrow morning to see if this verifies.

July 5, 2023

CH4 is forecast to be over 3000 um2 through angiosperm release along rivers. NO3 will be quite less causing a limitation for tornado development for all free addresses indicated on the SONFIRE ALMANACS LLC - Live Tornado Street Address Forecast Model page.

July 4, 2023

CH4 is forecast to be over 3000 um2 through angiosperm release along rivers. NO3 will be quite less causing a limitation for tornado development for all free addresses indicated on the SONFIRE ALMANACS LLC - Live Tornado Street Address Forecast Model page.

July 3, 2023

CH4 is forecast to be over 3000 um2 through angiosperm release along rivers. NO3 will be quite less causing a limitation for tornado development for all free addresses indicated on the SONFIRE ALMANACS LLC - Live Tornado Street Address Forecast Model page.

July 2, 2023

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UPDATE SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE APRIL 20 - 21 2023A 993 mb low will move across Iowa into Minnesota on April 20 - 21, 2023 swinging a cool front across the Mississippi River Valley and Eastern Arkansas River Valley. Better chance of hail and wind with this system. Isolated tornadoes (low chance) wil...

Update Severe Storms Possible April 18 - 19 2023A strong low will move across Colorado into Kansas and Nebraska April 18 - 19, 2023 swinging a cool front/dry line across the central and southern plains. Hail, wind, and isolated tornadoes will all be slightly possible with this system. Low to sligh...

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Increased Severe Weather Threat Possible April 14 in OklahomaA 995 mb low will affect Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas on April 14, 2023. Hail, wind, and tornadoes will all be possible with this system. Non-polar CH4 release is expected from tree stems, and shallow water systems such as creeks, rivers, and lakes. N...

Severe Weather Possible in the SoutheastA storm system will move across the Southeast United States on April 12 - 14 2023. Hail, wind, and isolated tornadoes will be possible. Non-polar CH4 release from shallow beaches along the Gulf of Mexico and slight NO3 tightening within the updraft ....

Severe Weather Possible April 12 - 15 2023A strong storm system will affect the Southern Plains, south-central states, and Northern Plains April 12 - 15 2023. Hail, wind, and tornadoes will all be possible with this system. Non-polar CH4 release is expected from tree stems, and shallow water...

Severe Weather Possible April 12 - 15 2023A strong storm system will affect the Southern Plains, south-central states, and Northern Plains April 12 - 15 2023. Hail, wind, and tornadoes will all be possible with this system. Non-polar CH4 release is expected from tree stems, and shallow water...

Dangerous Weather Situation Developing for Tuesday into WednesdayA dangerous storm system will move across the Plains, Midwest, Middle Mississippi Valley, and portions of the Ohio Valley Tuesday into Wednesday. Positive polarity will be widespread in H2O and nonpolar polarity NO3 associated with H2O within rainfal...

Severe Weather Possible on Tuesday - Wednesday DiscussionA dangerous storm system will move across the Plains, Midwest, Middle Mississippi Valley, and portions of the Ohio Valley Tuesday into Wednesday. NO3 within rainfall will increase over time. Release of CH4 from trees and denitrification will increase...

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